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Prediction for CME (2022-03-28T20:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-28T20:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19574/-1
CME Note: This CME is observed as a halo structure in both SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 white light coronagraph imagery. It is associated with an M1.0 flare from Active Region 12975 (N12W06) and eruption signature visible in SDO AIA 171/193 exhibiting a notable brightening/field line movement starting around 2022-03-28T19:03Z. The shock from the combined front of this CME and preceding 2022-03-28T12:09Z CME is observed around 2022-03-31T01:41Z, followed by the the first flux rope (possibly the flux rope for2022-03-28T12:09Z CME) starting around 2022-03-31T012:00Z. We are likely seeing the start of another flux rope (possibly for 2022-03-28T20:23Z CME) slightly after 2022-04-01T12:00Z when there is a sudden increase in the magnetic field and a drop in density. The end of this second ICME seems to happen on the morning of 2022-04-02 when the field becomes more turbulent, and density increases (analysis by Tarik Salman, LASSOS).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-31T01:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-31T23:05Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:
Issued: 2022 Mar 29 1301 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20329
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Mar 2022, 1259UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Mar 2022 until 31 Mar 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 053
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Mar 2022  10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 028
COMMENT: 
The possible Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday was detected by
CACTus as a partial halo with start time March 28th 12:00UT. After analysis
the estimated speed was found to be around 735 km/s and estimated time of
arrival early March 31st. This CME is followed by a partial halo CME that
has been detected by CACTus with reported start time March 28th 20:24UT.
After analysis the estimated speed was found to be around 784 km/s and
estimated time of arrival late March 31st.

Lead Time: 36.67 hour(s)
Difference: -21.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2022-03-29T13:01Z

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